As the vaccine rollout marches on and borders and businesses begin re-opening, every entrepreneur, small to mid-size business and global behemoth in the world right now is confronted with the same fact: we have no idea what the post-pandemic future is going to look like.
The landscape of “VUCA” - volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity - created by Covid-19 is not going to fade away as quickly as any of us would hope. And if there’s one thing we can all count on, it’s that change is constant.
But before rushing off to a fortune teller, leaders should consider scenario planning - a strategy tool that’s been used by the world’s leading corporations for decades. Designed to help manage and mitigate external uncertainties and identify and optimise internal complexities, scenario planning was originally developed in the military and subsequently adopted and reinvented by Shell, Anglo American and other pioneering firms in the late 1960s and early 1970s.