No double dip but growth muted, says BCC

The business lobby has revised down GDP forecasts for 2012 from 0.8% to 0.6%.

by Rebecca Burn-Callander
Last Updated: 19 Aug 2013
Unemployment going up. Productivity going down. The British Chamber of Commerce has released its 2012 predictions and there’s not much good news in its crystal ball.

This year will be slightly worse than 2011, posits the BCC. Yes, really. Growth will sag by 0.2% on last year’s 0.8% figure and prospects abroad are equally weak. But at least we’re not heading for a full-on double dip.  At least, we won’t unless Chancellor George Osborne does something silly, warns BCC Director General David Longworth.

‘Our economic forecast underlines the need for the government to deliver a Budget that will bring confidence to businesses,’ he says ‘The Chancellor must pull out the stops to enable British businesses to drive growth here at home.’

So what’s wee George got to contend with? Well, according to the BCC, unemployment will increase from the current 2.6m to 2.9m by 2013. And interest rates will stay low, hovering at the 0.5% mark until the final months of 2013. Bad news for savers. Good news for borrowers.

The BCC also warns that the extra Bank Holiday for the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee will probably water down growth figures for the quarter. As for the Olympics, the lobby only knows that London 2012 will ‘distort’ figures. For good or for ill, it doesn’t say.

How accurate is the BCC usually? Back in August, it foresaw growth of 1.1% for 2011, putting 2012 growth at 2.1%. No Mystic Meg then...

Find this article useful?

Get more great articles like this in your inbox every lunchtime

Social responsibility may no longer be a choice

Editorial: Having securitised businesses’ loans and paid their wage bills, it’s not inconceivable the government...

What went wrong at Wirecard

And how to stop it happening to you.

Leadership lessons from Jürgen Klopp

The Liverpool manager exemplifies ‘the long win’, based not on results but on clarity of...

How to get a grip on stress

Once a zebra escapes the lion's jaws, it goes back to grazing peacefully. There's a...

A leadership thought: Treat your colleagues like customers

One minute briefing: Create a platform where others can see their success, says AVEVA CEO...

The ignominious death of Gordon Gekko

Profit at all costs is a defunct philosophy, and purpose a corporate superpower, argues this...