What's the best way to predict the future?

Discovering who makes a superforecaster is enlightening - more so than reading about ideas for future trends, says Andrew Wileman.

by Andrew Wileman

Superforecasting is a very good book. In fact it is essential reading - which I have never said in any of my previous Management Today reviews.

In 2003, after the invasion of Iraq, the American Intelligence Community (IC) was shocked by how wrong it had been about Saddam having weapons of mass destruction.

Two years before, it had been blamed for not connecting the dots to predict 9/11; after Iraq, it got blamed for connecting dots that didn't exist. This was despite 20,000 smart intelligence analysts beavering away at a cost of several billion dollars.

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